Holiday turkey faces supply pressure, demand for convenience and more competition from beef and pork.
November 11, 2024
Changing consumer preferences suggest that whole turkeys may be losing their grip as the dominant center-of-plate choice for Thanksgiving dinner. While ample turkey supplies and favorable prices leading into the holiday season indicate turkey will retain its position as the traditional protein of choice this Thanksgiving, consumer trends are making the future less certain, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.
Growing demand for convenience, longer-term pressure on turkey supplies and increasing competition from beef and pork marketers may all impact the longevity of the holiday turkey.
According to the report, titled “Turkey is the Price-Savvy Protein for Thanksgiving,” a downward trend in U.S. turkey supplies, coupled with changing traditions and consumer openness to other animal protein options, could trigger a longer-term decline in holiday turkey sales.
“Most consumers think about cooking a whole turkey only once a year, and some of those consumers have moved away from preparing a whole turkey for Thanksgiving,” said Brian Earnest, animal protein economist with CoBank. “The beef and pork sectors have seen the shift in consumer behavior and view it as an opportunity to capture a bigger share of Thanksgiving protein purchases.”
Promotional activity around the holidays typically drives much of what shoppers choose to put in the cart. Retailers often price turkeys as a loss leader in hopes that sales on the remainder of the consumer’s Thanksgiving shopping cart will include items that offset those losses.
However, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s feature activity index shows a notable decline in promotional turkey pricing around the holidays in recent years (Figure 1).
As retailers began planning for Thanksgiving features last January, projections for turkey inventories were reported at their lowest point in four decades, signaling reduced availability in 2024. However, inventories of whole turkeys in cold storage were up about 4% year-over-year when they peaked in September at 246 million lb. While inventories are still down 100 million lb. from 2018 levels (Figure 2), the improved supply picture means consumers should find favorable prices for whole turkeys this Thanksgiving.
Inflation is playing a role as well. Although feed corn prices have been easing from recent peaks, the report points out that costs for turkey producers have remained elevated since 2023, suggesting that wholesale values adjusted downward more ferociously than producer costs as producers prepared turkey supplies for the 2024 holiday season (Figure 3).
Earnest noted that sliding demand for whole turkeys over the long term means producers should be evaluating the overall product mix more closely. “The opportunity to grow turkey consumption may be elsewhere,” he said. “Per Circana, ground turkey has shown tremendous strength this year, with retail volume sales increasing 5.5% to reach $1.9 billion in sales over the 52-week period ending Sept. 8. The upswing in demand for different types of turkey products reflects the changing nature of consumer preferences.”
Read the full report, “Turkey is the Price-Savvy Protein for Thanksgiving.”
CoBank is a cooperative member of the Farm Credit System, a nationwide network of banks and retail lending associations chartered to support the borrowing needs of U.S. agriculture, rural infrastructure and rural communities.
CoBank provides loans, leases, export financing and other financial services to agribusinesses across rural America and rural power, water and communications providers in all 50 states. The bank also provides wholesale loans and other financial services to affiliated Farm Credit associations serving more than 77,000 farmers, ranchers and other rural borrowers in 23 states around the country.
Headquartered outside Denver, Colo., CoBank serves customers from regional banking centers across the U.S. and also maintains an international representative office in Singapore.
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