Afternoon market recap: Soybeans also slightly firm on Friday; wheat prices were mostly lower.
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Grain prices were mixed once more on Friday after traders looked at global production trends and began squaring positions ahead of the next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which USDA will release next Tuesday. Corn prices saw the most upside, shifting more than 1% higher. Soybeans were also slightly firm, while wheat prices incurred modest to moderate cuts
Ample rains will be moving through parts of the Mid-South and Ohio River Valley over the next several days, with some fields set to see another 1” to 2” or more between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts generally wet, warm weather for the central U.S. between December 13 and December 18.
On Wall St., the Dow eroded 154 points lower in afternoon trading to 44,611 with unemployment increasing to 4.2%, matching economists’ expectations. Energy futures were also in the red this afternoon, with crude oil spilling another 1.5% lower to $67 per barrel on ample global supplies. Diesel dropped more than 1%, with gasoline down around 1.25%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+7,000), soybeans (+4,500), soymeal (+2,000), soyoil (+5,000) and CBOT wheat (+4,000).
Corn prices continued to rise on Friday following a round of technical buying that was partly spurred by general demand optimism. December futures added 4.75 cents to $4.3125, with March futures up 5 cents to $4.40.
Corn basis bids tracked 2 cents higher at an Illinois processor and faded a penny lower at two other Midwestern locations while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
Ahead of next Tuesday’s WASDE report from USDA, analysts expect to see 2024/25 corn ending stocks shift moderately lower, from 1.938 billion bushels in November down to 1.906 billion bushels. Individual trade guesses ranged between 1.863 billion and 1.938 billion bushels.
According to the latest readings from the Ag Economy Barometer, farmer sentiment jumped 30 points higher to 145 in November following the 2024 presidential election. That is the highest monthly reading since May 2021 (anything over 100 is considered a net positive). Rising sentiment is largely due to expectations for favorable regulatory and tax environments under a Donald Trump presidency.
Egypt, which is one of the world’s top grain importers, purchased $1.444 billion worth of corn between January and August of this year. That’s moderately below $1.708 billion over the same period in 2023.
Corn settlements on Thursday were for 265,110 contracts.
Soybean prices followed corn higher on a round of technical buying but weren’t able to scrape together much positive momentum on Friday. January futures added a penny to reach $9.9475, with March futures up 1.25 cents to $10.0025.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. January soymeal futures slumped 1.25% lower, while January soyoil futures climbed more than 1.5% higher.
Soybean basis bids tracked 3 to 5 cents lower at two Midwestern processors while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
Prior to the next WASDE report from USDA, out December 10, analysts expect to see 2024/25 ending stocks ease fractionally lower from 470 million bushels in November down to 469 million bushels. Individual trade guesses ranged between 430 million and 486 million bushels.
Organic agriculture was “hyper local” in its infancy but has since made widespread gains both in the U.S. and abroad, according to USDA under secretary Jenny Lester Moffitt, speaking at the 2024 Organic Grower Summit earlier this week. Tim Hearden with Western Farm Press was among those in attendance and offered a recap of the event – click here to learn more.
If you haven’t visited FarmFutures.com in a bit, our Friday feature “7 ag stories you can’t miss” is one way to quickly catch up on the industry’s top headlines. The latest edition includes a halt to the Corporate Transparency Act, an update on layoffs at Tyson and Cargill, and much more. Click here to get started.
Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 223,319 contracts.
Wheat prices faced modest cuts following a round of technical selling on Friday. March Chicago SRW futures dropped 2 cents to $5.5625, March Kansas City HRW futures eased 0.25 cents to $5.5225, and March MGEX spring wheat futures fell 3.75 cents to $5.9475.
Ahead of next Tuesday’s WASDE report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to make fractional cuts to 2024/25 wheat ending stocks, moving from 815 million bushels in November to 814 million bushels. Individual trade estimates ranged between 787 million and 830 million bushels.
Argus Media is reporting that Russia’s 2025 wheat production could see modest year-over-year increases after offering an estimate of 2.995 billion bushels. Even so, representatives cite “enormous risks for this winter” depending on how weather plays out in the coming months. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
French farm office FranceAgriMer estimates that 86% of the country’s soft wheat crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition through December 2, which is down a point from last week but still moderately above last year’s pace of 77% so far. Plantings were 96% complete as of Monday. France is Europe’s No. 1 grain producer.
Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange upped its estimates for the country’s current wheat crop after offering a new projection of 683.4 million bushels as harvest progress passed the halfway mark. Corn and soybean plantings are also currently underway in Argentina, which is South America’s No. 2 grain producer.
CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 75,022 contracts.
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